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MODULE 02 ⏱️ 15-22 MIN READ

Inferential Statistics, P-Values & Hypothesis Testing

Master null hypothesis significance testing (NHST), Type I / Type II errors, and parametric vs non-parametric statistical tests.

1. The Hypothesis Testing Framework

In classical frequentist inference, we test a Null Hypothesis \(H_0\) against an Alternative Hypothesis \(H_1\):

  • P-Value: The probability of observing a test statistic at least as extreme as the sample outcome, assuming \(H_0\) is strictly true: \(P(\text{Data} \mid H_0)\).
  • Significance Level (\(\alpha\)): Typically \(\alpha = 0.05\). If \(p < \alpha\), we reject \(H_0\).

2. Two-Sample Student's t-Test & Z-Score

\[ t = \frac{\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2}{\sqrt{\frac{s_1^2}{n_1} + \frac{s_2^2}{n_2}}} \]

3. Errors in Statistical Decision Making

  • Type I Error (\(\alpha\)): False Positive — rejecting \(H_0\) when \(H_0\) is actually true.
  • Type II Error (\(\beta\)): False Negative — failing to reject \(H_0\) when \(H_1\) is true. Statistical Power is \(1 - \beta\).

🎯 Module Mastery Certification Quiz

+100 XP
What does a p-value of 0.03 strictly mean in hypothesis testing?
There is a 3% probability of observing test results this extreme or more extreme assuming the null hypothesis H0 is true.
There is a 97% probability that the research hypothesis is correct.
The effect size is exactly 3%.
3% of the dataset consists of corrupted outliers.